5
stable and to stand at 1.8% for advanced economies in 2025, and at 4.2% for emerging and developing
economies
2
.
Global inflation, after having been estimated to have declined to 5.8% in 2024, from 6.7% in 2023, is
expected to decline further to 4.3% in 2025 according to the IMF (October 2024). According to estimates in
emerging and developing economies, inflation remained high at 7.9% in 2024, slightly down from 8.1% in
2023. In advanced economies, where central banks took decisive action, it is estimated to have declined to
2.6% in 2024 and to reach 2.0% in 2025. Inflation fell significantly in 2024, with goods inflation close to zero,
while services inflation remains high, with monetary authorities in many economies in the process of lowering
key interest rates. For 2025, amid uncertainty mainly about international trade, a further decline in advanced
economies’ inflation, stronger real incomes and a change in economic policy are expected, with fiscal policy
tightening and monetary policy easing
2
.
In the United States, GDP increased by 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 from 1.6% in the first quarter
of 2024. This improvement was driven mainly by strong private consumption, due to declining inflation and
rising real incomes, and investment. In the third quarter of 2024 growth declined slightly to 2.8%, mainly
driven by a decline in private inventories and residential investment. Annual CPI inflation increased to 2.7%
in November 2024, after six months of decline leading to 2.4% in September 2024, its lowest level since
February 2021. Further disinflation is expected, but at a slow pace. For the whole of 2024, according to the
IMF forecast (October 2024), GDP growth for the United States is estimated at 2.8%, supported by growth in
real wages, consumption and investment, while in 2025 it is expected to decline to 2.2%, due to a weakening
labour market. More generally, in the US, growth is expected to benefit from the commitment to extend the
tax breaks decided in 2017, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and trade disputes, combined with
uncertainty due to possible changes in the new US leadership’s international trade policy, appear to have a
downward effect
2
.
In China, the economic slowdown is expected to continue in 2025, as GDP growth is estimated to slow down
to 4.5%, from 4.8% in 2024
3
. The recovery in industrial production and exports does not seem to be able to
compensate for the weakness in private consumption, which is weighed down by the correction in the real
estate sector.
2
Source: Monetary Policy - Interim Report 2024, (December 2024), Bank of Greece
3
Source: Monetary Policy - Interim Report 2024, (December 2024), Bank of Greece